Indonesia's Strongest Presidential Candidate Based on Latest Poll

Arfi Bambani
Indonesian Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto (middle) and French Minister of the Armed Forces Florence Parly in Jakarta on Thursday, February 10, 2022. (Photo: Ministry of Defense)
Indonesian Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto (middle) and French Minister of the Armed Forces Florence Parly in Jakarta on Thursday, February 10, 2022. (Photo: Ministry of Defense) - Indonesian Political Indicators (IPI) survey released in Jakarta, Sunday, showed closed simulation results for the presidential and vice-presidential elections showed that Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo received 51.1 percent of the vote from 1,200 respondents. Their number of votes was the highest when compared to the votes obtained by other pairs of presidential and vice-presidential candidates, which involved Special Capital Region Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan and State-owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir.

In a simulation of two pairs of presidential and vice-presidential candidates, the results of the Indicator survey show that if Gerindra Chairperson Prabowo Subianto is paired with Anies, the vote acquisition will reach 47.7 percent, while Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo pairs with Erick Thohir 36.8 percent. Then, if Anies is paired with Erick Thohir, the vote gains reach 31.4 percent.

"Why is Prabowo-Ganjar higher than Prabowo-Anies, because Prabowo is weak in Central and East Java, while Ganjar is strong in Central Java. So he can make up for Prabowo's shortcomings. While Prabowo-Anies (votes) are the same, Anies is also weak in Central Java," said Executive Director of Indonesian Political Indicator Burhanuddin Muhtadi in Jakarta, Sunday, April 3, 2022.

However, Muhtadi questioned whether Ganjar was willing to become a vice-presidential candidate, while he had a chance to be elected president in the 2024 election. Not only that, Muhtadi continued to question whether Ganjar's supporters or Anies would be willing if he took up the position as a vice-presidential candidate.

This is because the political situation in the future will not only depend on the players but also on the support base, he said. Apart from the simulation of the names, the Indonesian Political Indicator also simulated the presidential and vice-presidential candidates which involved the Chairperson of the Democratic Party Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), the General Chair of the Golkar Party Airlangga Hartarto, and figures from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) who were believed to be running for the 2024 presidential election namely the Speaker of the Indonesian House of Representatives, Puan Maharani.

From the simulation, no candidate pair received more than 40 percent of the votes. The highest number of votes was obtained by the Ganjar-Erick Thohir pair of 32.2 percent if both competed with the Prabowo-Puan pair who got 28.7 percent of the votes, and Anies-AHY 27.4 percent. In the simulation, the Prabowo-Erick pair also won 31.8 percent of the vote, if they fought against the Anies-AHY pair 29.2 percent, and Ganjar-Puan 26.9 percent.

In the same survey, Indicator also presented seven names that are believed to have the opportunity to run in the 2024 Presidential Election. The result, Ganjar and Prabowo's votes were balanced by 27 percent, followed by Anies Baswedan 22 percent, AHY 6.7 percent, Erick Thohir 2.4 percent, Puan Maharani 1.8 percent, and Airlangga Hartarto 0.9 percent.

The order of the votes was slightly different from the results of a semi-closed survey involving 19 names of figures. Nevertheless, Prabowo, Ganjar, and Anies still rank in the top three, followed by West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil, AHY, Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy Sandiaga S. Uno, East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa, Social Minister Tri Rismaharini, SOE Minister Erick Thohir, and Puan Maharani.

Tag # indonesia election 2024 # indonesia presidential election # presidential election # general election 2024 # prabowo subianto # ganjar pranowo # erick thohir

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